Indiana Falls to No. 9, and the CFP Committee Has Some Explaining to Do

By The Coach Shannon Griffith | Hoosier Football Tailgate

Tennessee beat Alabama. Both teams are 7–2. Yet in the second College Football Playoff rankings, Alabama is No. 3 and Tennessee is No. 8.

Start there if you want to understand why Indiana fans are questioning Tuesday’s rankings. The Hoosiers stayed 8–1 during their bye and fell from No. 4 to No. 9. The committee can move a team that didn’t play. The teams around it had games, and their résumés can change. But when Indiana drops five spots in a week and Alabama sits five spots ahead of a team with the same record that beat it, the committee ought to tell us what it valued and why.

If head-to-head matters, explain Alabama and Tennessee

I’ve served on an NCAA Division III national ranking committee. I know you have to weigh the whole résumé. Two teams can have the same record and have played very different schedules. But when two teams look comparable, the game they played against each other is one of the best pieces of evidence you have.

If the committee believes Alabama and Tennessee aren’t comparable, show us why. Which wins, which losses and what difference in schedule are worth five spots? Tennessee already answered the question on the field when the two teams played. If the committee gives other evidence more weight, it owes fans a clear explanation of how that fits the standards it asks us to trust.

Indiana’s offense deserves scrutiny. So does the coverage.

I had Indiana at No. 6 in my own rankings Tuesday morning. I understand the argument against putting the Hoosiers in the top five. They scored 13 points in an overtime win at Michigan and needed overtime to beat Minnesota 23–16. There haven’t been enough explosive plays in the running or passing game. When you need 12 plays to get down the field, a sack or a holding penalty can end the drive. This goes deeper than who starts at quarterback. If Grant Wilson starts, put designed quarterback runs in the plan and make the defense account for him. Give Indiana’s defense some help with shorter fields and better special teams.

Those concerns were there when Indiana was fourth. So was a defense that had carried the Hoosiers through tight games. What changed enough during an open date to move Indiana five places?

That’s where ESPN’s role deserves scrutiny. Its analysts spent the week questioning whether Indiana belonged in the top five. Then Indiana dropped without playing. The timing gives us a reason to ask how the ranking was reached. We don’t know what influenced the vote.

I’d put the selection show in the hands of a neutral broadcaster or an independent production team. Let ESPN and everybody else debate the rankings. Have the committee explain its own decisions in a forum where the network that has spent the week arguing the case doesn’t also control how the verdict is presented. Ask the chair directly about Tennessee and Alabama, about what changed for Indiana and about how teams will be judged after championship weekend. Fans deserve to hear those answers from the people who cast the votes.

Win the next three. Then win the Big Ten.

At No. 4 and 9–0, UCLA is in the strongest playoff position in the Big Ten. Indiana is the only other Big Ten team in the top 12. Iowa is No. 15. Automatic bids can make the at-large cutoff tighter than the rankings alone suggest, so sitting ninth leaves Indiana little room to slide.

At 10–2, I would pick Indiana to miss the playoff. At 11–1, I like its chances. That makes USC a must-win in my book, and the Hoosiers have to carry that urgency through the last two regular-season games.

If Indiana earns a trip to the Big Ten Championship, there’s still a question the committee should answer before kickoff. Say the Hoosiers go 11–1 and lose a close championship game to UCLA. How would the committee compare that 11–2 team with a 10–2 team that stayed home? If earning a 13th game exposes Indiana to a penalty a team sitting at home never had to risk, the committee should explain exactly how it accounts for the extra game and the quality of the opponent.

I still want Indiana playing for the Big Ten title. Beat USC, win the last two and win the championship. That’s how Indiana takes the at-large decision out of the committee’s hands. As long as the Hoosiers need an at-large bid, how people weigh their offense, their defense and their schedule can shape their season. Win the Big Ten and Indiana gets to settle it on the field.

Rankings and records are as reported by Indiana Sports Beat Radio on November 10.