Will Illinois, Iowa, & Oregon Define Indiana's Playoff Hopes?

Will Illinois, Iowa & Oregon Define Indiana’s Playoff Fate?

By Coach Shannon Griffith | Hoosier Football Tailgate

Indiana Football shocked the college football world in 2024. With an 11-win season and an unprecedented run to the College Football Playoff, the Hoosiers rewrote the narrative of what’s possible in Bloomington. A program long known for its basketball heritage and gridiron struggles suddenly found itself on the sport’s biggest stage. But now, as the 2025 season begins, a single question dominates the conversation around IU: Was it a fluke? Under second-year head coach Curt Cignetti, Indiana doesn’t have the luxury of easing into the new season. Their legitimacy will be tested almost immediately through a brutal three-game stretch that includes a Big Ten showdown with Illinois, a road war at Iowa’s Kinnick Stadium, and a primetime national clash against the powerhouse Oregon Ducks. These aren’t just early-season games—they are the measuring stick by which Indiana’s 2025 campaign, and potentially its long-term credibility, will be judged.

The journey begins on September 20th in Bloomington, where Indiana will host the Illinois Fighting Illini in a pivotal conference opener. This isn’t the same old Illinois team. Under Bret Bielema, the Illini have transformed into a physical, disciplined, and dangerous squad that returns sixteen starters from a breakout 2024 campaign. With third-year quarterback Luke Altmyer under center and a mauling offensive line protecting him, Illinois will bring a battle-tested team to Memorial Stadium. Defensively, they’re led by edge rusher Gabe Jacas and a seasoned secondary that knows how to make life miserable for opposing offenses.

For the Hoosiers, this matchup is a chance to showcase new quarterback Fernando Mendoza, a transfer from Cal, and his connection with preseason All-American receiver Elijah Sarratt. The offensive line, bolstered by Notre Dame transfer Pat Coogan, will need to hold firm against Illinois’ front seven to give Mendoza the time and space to attack. On the defensive side, Indiana will rely heavily on All-American linebacker Aiden Fisher and star edge rusher Mikail Kamara to slow down Illinois’ punishing ground game and force Altmyer into challenging passing situations. Seven days later, Indiana heads into the heart of Hawkeye territory for a massive test of mental and physical toughness. Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City is one of the most intimidating environments in college football, and the Iowa Hawkeyes have made a living out of grinding out wins with suffocating defense and elite special teams play. Their offense has been pedestrian in recent years. Still, the addition of South Dakota State transfer quarterback Mark Gronowski—who brings a dual-threat element to the position—adds a new wrinkle to their traditionally conservative attack. For Indiana to come out of Iowa City with a win, they’ll need to play clean, disciplined football. Iowa thrives on turnovers and field position. The Hoosiers must avoid giving the Hawkeyes any extra possessions while finding ways to attack a secondary that is still searching for its next lockdown corner. It won’t be pretty, but if Indiana can match Iowa’s physicality and take some calculated shots with Mendoza and Sarratt, they can walk out of Kinnick with a program-defining road win.

Then comes the game that could shake up the national conversation. On October 11th, Indiana travels west to face Oregon in what may be the most high-profile regular-season matchup in IU Football history. The Ducks are loaded on both sides of the ball and are widely considered one of the frontrunners to win the Big Ten and make the College Football Playoff. With former UCLA five-star quarterback Dante Moore stepping into the starting role, and a stacked roster that includes elite talents like running back Makhi Hughes, edge rusher Matayo Uiagalelei, and safety Dillon Thieneman, Oregon presents a complete, top-five caliber challenge. To pull off the upset, Indiana will need to be aggressive and unafraid. Surviving the opening blitz in Autzen Stadium is critical. Oregon tends to bury teams in the first quarter with fast-paced offense and deafening home-field energy. If Indiana can absorb the early punches, settle into the game, and force Oregon to make plays under pressure, they may be able to keep it close deep into the fourth quarter. A win in Eugene would be the biggest regular-season victory in Indiana Football history—there’s no question about it.

If Indiana can emerge from this three-game gauntlet with a 2–1 record, it keeps their College Football Playoff aspirations alive and sends a loud message to the nation: 2024 wasn’t a fluke. Curt Cignetti hasn’t just built a competitive team—he’s building a sustainable program that expects to compete at the highest level every year. The Hoosiers will face other key matchups later in the season, including a potential Big Ten title-decider against Penn State in November. But it’s this early-season stretch that will set the tone. These games will either reinforce Indiana’s status as a rising power or provide fuel to those who never believed in the first place.

So here we are, on the edge of a new season, with everything still to prove. Was 2024 a magical, once-in-a-lifetime run? Or was it just the beginning of something even bigger?

We’re about to find out.